There's an article in the January issue of Equus titled "A Decade of Change" that provides horse industry registration and membership statistics from 1995 to 2005. These statistics reflect the ups and downs of America's involvement with horses.

Increases include a 90% upswing for the National Reining Horse Association, 45% for the National Cutting Horse Association, 38% for the U.S. Equestrian Federation, 26% for the U.S. Eventing Association, 21% for the American Driving Society, and 26% for AERC. My figures show a 36% increase for AERC but Equus's percentage is in the right range.

Other disciplines are down with rodeo decreasing 8%, dressage (-11%), Pony Club (-12%), and trotting (-25%).

Registrations are up for Quarter Horses (54%), Tennessee Walking Horses (44%), Saddlebreds (32%), and Paints (26%).

In registrations, the only breeds down were Appaloosa (-65%) Arabians (-35%), and half-Arabians (-12%). Arabian and half-Arabian registrations (the most common breed in endurance) are in a significant decline even well after the tax laws changed in 1987.

The compounded annual growth rate of AERC is 3.1%, which doesn't seem like a lot until it's compared to the U.S. population compounded annual growth rate of only 1% over the past 10 years. On that basis, AERC membership is growing at three times the rate of the U.S. population. In activities that use Arabians, it looks like endurance is the fastest growing discipline even while Arabian registrations are decreasing.

So what does this mean for AERC? Over the past year, I've heard a number of members argue that AERC is growing too fast and, as a result, drifting away from our fundamental purpose. Their argument is that the emphasis has moved from the promotion of 100-mile distances to shorter distances such as 25 to 35 miles and multiday rides. Other comments have been that we are trying to grow our organization only to make it more attractive to sponsors for the money they provide.

Looking at the data for ride entries from 1996 to 2005, the compounded annual growth rates are 12.8% for multidays, 3.4% for LD, and a decrease of 4.4% for 100s. LD has had several years of unusual growth but the typical rate is 3.4%. The growth rate for multiday rides is more than four times our membership growth and LD is slightly larger than normal membership growth. Both components together add up to over 56% of our ride entries in 2005. Hundred-mile rides continued their decline in 2005 and were only 4.6% of entries.

Where does this lead us in what we want AERC to be? I don't have a solution in hand. I'm presenting data for the membership to consider in providing their views on what the goals of our organization should be 10 years from now. While we don't have to make a decision today, we should be thinking about AERC's purpose in the future.

All organizations change over time. Those that don't change usually disappear, or are absorbed into another group. AERC has transitioned from an organization focused on 100-mile competitions to one with a diverse set of distances in the past 10 years.

Think about our goals and our goals for our equine partners. Where do you want to be in 2016?